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Milepost
1262

TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Thursday, 1 October 2026

Kansas City, Missouri Revisions MILEPOST 1262

Kansas City's forecast for Saturday has moved 7°F warmer

71°F in the 20260929T12:00Z run, 77°F in the 20261001T06:00Z — the 3rd-largest revision of the 7 cities on the roster that moved at all. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 13°F.

Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Saturday, October 10 at 18Z in Kansas City, that trail runs from 70.6°F in the 20260929T12:00Z cycle to 77.5°F in the 20261001T06:00Z — a move of +6.8°F across 8 runs.

The change is about half the run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread, so the earlier forecast is still inside the current range of outcomes.

Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.

The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
forecast revision for Saturday at 18Z
api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd)
6.8 °F normal 0.0 °F · 3 of 7
8 synoptic cycles
10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour
api.weather.city (nbm-qmd)
13.1 °F normal 6.8 °F
current run
Milepost
1262 · laid 2026-10-01T16:25:12Z
Model
nbm-qmd · cycle 20261001T06:00Z
Desk
revision v1
Method
the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
Source
https://api.weather.city/v1/history
Digest
4ee47253a0fbc8c99c20c0d2c761ab3f544df554dcb11dae8ee3cbaa962618d2
Machine
JSON