HII The Ledger
MILEPOST 1258
Guidance has run 3.0°F warm at HII for a month
The mean signed residual across 1,258 pairs is +3.05°F, against -0.02°F averaged over all 82 stations with enough samples to score. A bias is not an error the reader can ignore — it is one they can correct for.
Mean absolute error says how far the forecast lands from the observation; the signed mean says which side it lands on. At HII over September 1–October 1, 2026, it lands +3.05°F from the report, across 1,258 pairs — the largest standing lean of any of the 82 stations currently carrying enough samples.
ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| mean signed residual at HII Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.05 °F | normal -0.0 °F · 1 of 82 September 1–October 1, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1258 · laid 2026-10-01T09:25:12Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson
- Digest
- 6f5dde059d7b6435e8a4d114e11890299a7db0c34fae3717d6218a826f9d58bf
- Machine
- JSON