Edition 2026-10-01 The Ledger Archive API RSS Weather Trader
Milepost
1257

TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Thursday, 1 October 2026

Dallas, Texas Revisions MILEPOST 1257

Dallas's forecast for Monday has moved 10°F warmer

76°F in the 20260930T12:00Z run, 86°F in the 20260930T18:00Z — the 3rd-largest revision of the 9 cities on the roster that moved at all. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 17°F.

Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Monday, October 12 at 00Z in Dallas, that trail runs from 76.0°F in the 20260930T12:00Z cycle to 85.6°F in the 20260930T18:00Z — a move of +9.6°F across 8 runs.

The change is about half the run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread, so the earlier forecast is still inside the current range of outcomes.

Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.

The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
forecast revision for Monday at 00Z
api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd)
9.6 °F normal 0.0 °F · 3 of 9
8 synoptic cycles
10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour
api.weather.city (nbm-qmd)
17.4 °F normal 9.6 °F
current run
Milepost
1257 · laid 2026-10-01T05:25:11Z
Model
nbm-qmd · cycle 20260930T18:00Z
Desk
revision v1
Method
the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
Source
https://api.weather.city/v1/history
Digest
a9bfd33404809feed9e17b93fcca55a9692fb4a6560783c5336e9e535096d747
Machine
JSON