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TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Wednesday, 16 September 2026

Weather Trader Notebook MILEPOST 122

October 17, 2023 Afternoon Update

Watching East Coast weekend storm

What the month did

October 2023 was the 23rd-warmest October in the 131-year national record (1895–2025), at 56.0°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 54.5°F (+1.5°F).

October 2023 was the 62nd-driest October in the 131-year national record (1895–2025), at 2.2in against a 1991–2020 normal of 2.5in (-0.3in).

NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.

Over the next week, the North Pacific jet stream continues its meridional meanders and eventually becomes contorted with wave breaking sending the jet into the subtropics NE of Hawaii. For the next several days, we’ll see ridging into the Arctic circle and widespread warmth for much of North America especially in the Western US. That also means quiet conditions over much of the nation until this weekend when the East Coast storm track could see a Nor’easter or “bomb cyclone” although the range of outcomes is still uncertain.

Precipitable water is my favorite atmospheric variable and watching the animation over the next 7-days across the Pacific is mesmerizing. The tropics in the Pacific outside of newly named Tropical Storm Norma off the coast of Mexico remain quiet.

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Milepost
122 · laid 2023-10-17T21:23:40.302000Z
Source
https://weather.substack.com/p/october-17-2023-afternoon-update
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