October 13, 2023 Afternoon Update
Invest 94L with high chance of development
October 2023 was the 23rd-warmest October in the 131-year national record (1895–2025), at 56.0°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 54.5°F (+1.5°F).
October 2023 was the 62nd-driest October in the 131-year national record (1895–2025), at 2.2in against a 1991–2020 normal of 2.5in (-0.3in).
NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.
After the storm system in the Great Lakes exits off the Mid-Atlantic coast, the weather pattern across the Lower 48 quiets down significantly for the next 7-days through most of next week. Unfortunately, another crummy weekend for millions from D.C to NYC.
NHC has increased the chance of Invest 94L to 80% for development mainly after this weekend. Global and mesoscale model spaghetti (minus ECMWF) shows a general WNW track toward the Leeward Islands in 5-6 days. GFS and ECMWF global models are not developing Invest 94L but the EPS ensembles show a much stronger signal. And, the likelihood of development seems high based upon the continued bullishness of the EPS. Too soon to detail the intensity or impacts to the NE Caribbean, but the potential for a major hurricane is certainly on the board. The next name is Tammy.
The rest of this piece is for paid subscribers of Weather Trader. The Post keeps the archive, the index and the record; the writing itself stays behind the same subscription it was published under.
Read the full piece →- Milepost
- 120 · laid 2023-10-13T21:56:53.251000Z
- Source
- https://weather.substack.com/p/october-13-2023-afternoon-update
- Digest
- 60fb3ebecc71946065c33bd1a924fb47647ed9afa99801444e940972526260c4
- Machine
- JSON