Phoenix, Arizona Revisions
MILEPOST 1196
Phoenix's forecast for Wednesday has moved 8°F colder
90°F in the 20260921T18:00Z run, 83°F in the 20260923T18:00Z — the 3rd-largest revision of the 8 cities on the roster that moved at all. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 16°F.
Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Wednesday, September 30 at 03Z in Phoenix, that trail runs from 90.4°F in the 20260921T18:00Z cycle to 82.8°F in the 20260923T18:00Z — a move of -7.6°F across 8 runs.
The change sits well inside the run's own spread, which is the guidance converging rather than reversing.
Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| forecast revision for Wednesday at 03Z api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd) |
-7.6 °F | normal 0.0 °F · 3 of 8 8 synoptic cycles |
| 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour api.weather.city (nbm-qmd) |
16.1 °F | normal 7.6 °F current run |
- Milepost
- 1196 · laid 2026-09-24T16:25:20Z
- Model
- nbm-qmd · cycle 20260923T18:00Z
- Desk
- revision v1
- Method
- the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
- Source
- https://api.weather.city/v1/history
- Digest
- 8d0598626abd2989cf54e032e039ae8ffaf0dd78c23a69ea8dc1b5201e3cccb4
- Machine
- JSON