The Ledger The Ledger
MILEPOST 1192
The ledger, through September 24
Mean absolute temperature error runs 2.22°F at day 1 and 3.81°F at day 7, over 517,017 settled forecast-observation pairs.
Every forecast this network publishes for a station with an ASOS report is compared against that report once the valid time has passed, and the residual is written down. This is the standing table for August 25–September 24, 2026.
| Lead | NDFD | NBM | pairs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 2.28 | 2.22 | 71,990 |
| Day 2 | 2.49 | 2.42 | 71,761 |
| Day 3 | 2.75 | 2.64 | 71,016 |
| Day 4 | 2.98 | 2.87 | 70,781 |
| Day 5 | 3.31 | 3.15 | 70,260 |
| Day 6 | 3.64 | 3.49 | 69,876 |
| Day 7 | 4.01 | 3.81 | 56,708 |
| Day 8 | — | 4.11 | 34,625 |
Mean absolute error, °F, temperature. ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.22 °F | of 35,996 August 25–September 24, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.64 °F | of 35,620 August 25–September 24, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.15 °F | of 35,695 August 25–September 24, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.81 °F | of 35,544 August 25–September 24, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.28 °F | of 35,994 August 25–September 24, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.75 °F | of 35,396 August 25–September 24, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.31 °F | of 34,565 August 25–September 24, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.01 °F | of 21,164 August 25–September 24, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1192 · laid 2026-09-24T00:25:13Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-08.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson - Digest
- 3976c1ddd30f4e484397a763f9ad824f13666d34d48a4c3072a89d16a7c61446
- Machine
- JSON