The Ledger The Ledger
MILEPOST 1182
The ledger, through September 23
Mean absolute temperature error runs 2.23°F at day 1 and 3.80°F at day 7, over 503,291 settled forecast-observation pairs.
Every forecast this network publishes for a station with an ASOS report is compared against that report once the valid time has passed, and the residual is written down. This is the standing table for August 24–September 23, 2026.
| Lead | NDFD | NBM | pairs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 2.28 | 2.23 | 70,482 |
| Day 2 | 2.49 | 2.42 | 69,806 |
| Day 3 | 2.74 | 2.64 | 69,434 |
| Day 4 | 2.97 | 2.86 | 68,975 |
| Day 5 | 3.32 | 3.16 | 68,604 |
| Day 6 | 3.64 | 3.50 | 68,520 |
| Day 7 | 3.98 | 3.80 | 54,686 |
| Day 8 | — | 4.10 | 32,784 |
Mean absolute error, °F, temperature. ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.23 °F | of 35,204 August 24–September 23, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.64 °F | of 34,980 August 24–September 23, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.16 °F | of 35,055 August 24–September 23, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.8 °F | of 33,924 August 24–September 23, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.28 °F | of 35,278 August 24–September 23, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.74 °F | of 34,454 August 24–September 23, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.32 °F | of 33,549 August 24–September 23, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.98 °F | of 20,762 August 24–September 23, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1182 · laid 2026-09-23T00:25:14Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-08.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson - Digest
- 3614887ac0bb41c1955b63a973480a9a1557b561e9d6be58e66ec20c7470b509
- Machine
- JSON