October 11, 2023 Afternoon Update
Southeast tropical disturbance drenching Gulf Coast
October 2023 was the 23rd-warmest October in the 131-year national record (1895–2025), at 56.0°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 54.5°F (+1.5°F).
October 2023 was the 62nd-driest October in the 131-year national record (1895–2025), at 2.2in against a 1991–2020 normal of 2.5in (-0.3in).
NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.
The heaviest rainfall over the next couple days [ NWS NDFD +66 hours through Saturday morning] will add up along I-75 in central Florida around Ocala and Gainesville. 1” in Atlanta (we’ll take it) and 1-2” elsewhere. This is all welcome rainfall from a tropical disturbance that merged with a frontal boundary.
The Plains storm should be cranking around 990 mb by early Friday with the potential for heavy rain from Wyoming into the Great Lakes adding up to 2-4”. This is a lot of rainfall for mid-October. It looks like the moisture is being pulled up from Mexico from the remnants of Hurricane Lidia, and not the Gulf of Mexico. We can see that with the Integrated Vapor Transport ( IVT ) parameter usually used for identification of atmospheric rivers.
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- 118 · laid 2023-10-11T21:25:49.071000Z
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