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TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Wednesday, 16 September 2026

Weather Trader Notebook MILEPOST 117

October 10, 2023 Afternoon Update

Plains storm taking shape

What the month did

October 2023 was the 23rd-warmest October in the 131-year national record (1895–2025), at 56.0°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 54.5°F (+1.5°F).

October 2023 was the 62nd-driest October in the 131-year national record (1895–2025), at 2.2in against a 1991–2020 normal of 2.5in (-0.3in).

NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.

Quick update: ECMWF 12z was late today and gummed up the works.

A rather powerful early fall low-pressure system will intensify over the next few days over the Plains. Only a little mixed precipitation is expected on the back side of the storm. Still not enough cold air for a blizzard. Another couple weeks.

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Milepost
117 · laid 2023-10-10T22:06:42.130000Z
Source
https://weather.substack.com/p/october-10-2023-afternoon-update
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