Phoenix, Arizona Revisions
MILEPOST 1163
Phoenix's forecast for Thursday has moved 8°F colder
102°F in the 20260919T00:00Z run, 95°F in the 20260920T18:00Z — the 3rd-largest revision of the 5 cities on the roster that moved at all. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 10°F.
Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Thursday, September 24 at 00Z in Phoenix, that trail runs from 102.1°F in the 20260919T00:00Z cycle to 94.6°F in the 20260920T18:00Z — a move of -7.5°F across 8 runs.
The change is about half the run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread, so the earlier forecast is still inside the current range of outcomes.
Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| forecast revision for Thursday at 00Z api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd) |
-7.5 °F | normal 0.0 °F · 3 of 5 8 synoptic cycles |
| 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour api.weather.city (nbm-qmd) |
10.3 °F | normal 7.5 °F current run |
- Milepost
- 1163 · laid 2026-09-21T04:25:49Z
- Model
- nbm-qmd · cycle 20260920T18:00Z
- Desk
- revision v1
- Method
- the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
- Source
- https://api.weather.city/v1/history
- Digest
- 41a339a09d50d8bfa0263e3e7be682c8a188dce06653dd963739059a8c4a9700
- Machine
- JSON