NBG The Ledger
MILEPOST 1157
Guidance has run 2.6°F warm at NBG for a month
The mean signed residual across 6,493 pairs is +2.55°F, against -0.09°F averaged over all 79 stations with enough samples to score. A bias is not an error the reader can ignore — it is one they can correct for.
Mean absolute error says how far the forecast lands from the observation; the signed mean says which side it lands on. At NBG over August 21–September 20, 2026, it lands +2.55°F from the report, across 6,493 pairs — the largest standing lean of any of the 79 stations currently carrying enough samples.
ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| mean signed residual at NBG Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.55 °F | normal -0.1 °F · 1 of 79 August 21–September 20, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1157 · laid 2026-09-20T18:25:18Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-08.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson - Digest
- 40aaecdd442f03e8d4415b72ce5e741e1dea93f65de422bd2f247c37afcfce8f
- Machine
- JSON