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Milepost
1153

TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Sunday, 20 September 2026

Dallas, Texas Revisions MILEPOST 1151

Dallas's forecast for Wednesday has moved 9°F colder

92°F in the 20260919T06:00Z run, 83°F in the 20260920T00:00Z — the largest revision of any city on the roster. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 22°F.

Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Wednesday, September 30 at 18Z in Dallas, that trail runs from 92.4°F in the 20260919T06:00Z cycle to 82.9°F in the 20260920T00:00Z — a move of -9.4°F across 8 runs.

The change sits well inside the run's own spread, which is the guidance converging rather than reversing.

Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.

The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
forecast revision for Wednesday at 18Z
api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd)
-9.4 °F normal 0.0 °F · 1 of 4
8 synoptic cycles
10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour
api.weather.city (nbm-qmd)
21.9 °F normal 9.4 °F
current run
Milepost
1151 · laid 2026-09-20T10:25:16Z
Model
nbm-qmd · cycle 20260920T00:00Z
Desk
revision v1
Method
the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
Source
https://api.weather.city/v1/history
Digest
1cf251599e4dbeaa150e99607f1899578dbcf9814d35bfbdfd4b5dd7116b3045
Machine
JSON