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Milepost
1150

TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Sunday, 20 September 2026

Dallas, Texas Revisions MILEPOST 1149

Dallas's forecast for Wednesday has moved 7°F colder

77°F in the 20260919T00:00Z run, 70°F in the 20260919T18:00Z — the 3rd-largest revision of the 3 cities on the roster that moved at all. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 18°F.

Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Wednesday, September 30 at 12Z in Dallas, that trail runs from 77.0°F in the 20260919T00:00Z cycle to 70.2°F in the 20260919T18:00Z — a move of -6.8°F across 8 runs.

The change sits well inside the run's own spread, which is the guidance converging rather than reversing.

Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.

The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
forecast revision for Wednesday at 12Z
api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd)
-6.8 °F normal 0.0 °F · 3 of 3
8 synoptic cycles
10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour
api.weather.city (nbm-qmd)
18.4 °F normal 6.8 °F
current run
Milepost
1149 · laid 2026-09-20T04:25:19Z
Model
nbm-qmd · cycle 20260919T18:00Z
Desk
revision v1
Method
the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
Source
https://api.weather.city/v1/history
Digest
b20def0d8d1168d79c595535f8581a2a5cafacb8ef4c40449a50c6aec217c6b7
Machine
JSON