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Milepost
1141

TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Saturday, 19 September 2026

Kansas City, Missouri Revisions MILEPOST 1140

Kansas City's forecast for Thursday has moved 7°F colder

63°F in the 20260917T06:00Z run, 56°F in the 20260919T00:00Z — the 2nd-largest revision of the 5 cities on the roster that moved at all. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 13°F.

Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Thursday, September 24 at 12Z in Kansas City, that trail runs from 63.2°F in the 20260917T06:00Z cycle to 56.4°F in the 20260919T00:00Z — a move of -6.8°F across 8 runs.

The change is about half the run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread, so the earlier forecast is still inside the current range of outcomes.

Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.

The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
forecast revision for Thursday at 12Z
api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd)
-6.8 °F normal 0.0 °F · 2 of 5
8 synoptic cycles
10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour
api.weather.city (nbm-qmd)
13.1 °F normal 6.8 °F
current run
Milepost
1140 · laid 2026-09-19T11:25:16Z
Model
nbm-qmd · cycle 20260919T00:00Z
Desk
revision v1
Method
the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
Source
https://api.weather.city/v1/history
Digest
fe3c37d61159c4b632b79b9e084faef08de29725552aacec6fb40bd3ed958c90
Machine
JSON