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TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Wednesday, 16 September 2026

Weather Trader Winter MILEPOST 114

October 5, 2023 Afternoon Update

Cold front finally ending summer

What the month did

October 2023 was the 23rd-warmest October in the 131-year national record (1895–2025), at 56.0°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 54.5°F (+1.5°F).

October 2023 was the 62nd-driest October in the 131-year national record (1895–2025), at 2.2in against a 1991–2020 normal of 2.5in (-0.3in).

NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.

May be a couple weeks delayed, but the onset of Fall 2023 begins in earnest behind a strong cold front extending from Texas into the Great Lakes this evening. The moisture and energy from Philippe will combine with an area of low pressure off the East Coast to produce a powerful Nor’easter / hybrid system (< 980 mb central pressure) directly impacting New England this weekend. Gone are the balmy 80s in the Midwest and Great Lakes! Instead, frost and freeze watches/warnings into the weekend across the upper Plains and Midwest.

Rainfall through Sunday evening shows the progression of the front, but really disappointing in the Southeast. My lawn was so nice and green all summer here in Atlanta, and now it’s gone a bit crispy and dry. The next chance of significant rain will be related to a tropical system of some sort coming out of the Gulf of Mexico by middle of next week.

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Milepost
114 · laid 2023-10-05T22:44:45.804000Z
Source
https://weather.substack.com/p/october-5-2023-afternoon-update
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