Edition 2026-09-19 The Ledger Archive API RSS Weather Trader
Milepost
1141

TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Saturday, 19 September 2026

Phoenix, Arizona Revisions MILEPOST 1139

Phoenix's forecast for Sunday has moved 8°F warmer

74°F in the 20260917T06:00Z run, 82°F in the 20260919T00:00Z — the 3rd-largest revision of the 6 cities on the roster that moved at all. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 12°F.

Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Sunday, September 20 at 12Z in Phoenix, that trail runs from 74.1°F in the 20260917T06:00Z cycle to 82.0°F in the 20260919T00:00Z — a move of +7.9°F across 8 runs.

The change is about half the run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread, so the earlier forecast is still inside the current range of outcomes.

Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.

The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
forecast revision for Sunday at 12Z
api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd)
7.9 °F normal 0.0 °F · 3 of 6
8 synoptic cycles
10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour
api.weather.city (nbm-qmd)
12 °F normal 7.9 °F
current run
Milepost
1139 · laid 2026-09-19T10:25:16Z
Model
nbm-qmd · cycle 20260919T00:00Z
Desk
revision v1
Method
the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
Source
https://api.weather.city/v1/history
Digest
13db0675c537b7a1e20d65c6e3445cf4fb2f60b09a198383f3fb0df4b7732ac4
Machine
JSON