The Ledger The Ledger
MILEPOST 1125
The ledger, through September 18
Mean absolute temperature error runs 2.23°F at day 1 and 3.66°F at day 7, over 456,111 settled forecast-observation pairs.
Every forecast this network publishes for a station with an ASOS report is compared against that report once the valid time has passed, and the residual is written down. This is the standing table for August 19–September 18, 2026.
| Lead | NDFD | NBM | pairs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 2.28 | 2.23 | 68,199 |
| Day 2 | 2.48 | 2.42 | 67,374 |
| Day 3 | 2.72 | 2.63 | 65,629 |
| Day 4 | 2.96 | 2.85 | 63,276 |
| Day 5 | 3.24 | 3.12 | 60,881 |
| Day 6 | 3.53 | 3.41 | 58,470 |
| Day 7 | 3.82 | 3.66 | 45,590 |
| Day 8 | — | 3.95 | 26,692 |
Mean absolute error, °F, temperature. ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.23 °F | of 34,761 August 19–September 18, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.63 °F | of 32,642 August 19–September 18, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.12 °F | of 30,320 August 19–September 18, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.66 °F | of 27,907 August 19–September 18, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.28 °F | of 33,438 August 19–September 18, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.72 °F | of 32,987 August 19–September 18, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.24 °F | of 30,561 August 19–September 18, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.82 °F | of 17,683 August 19–September 18, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1125 · laid 2026-09-18T00:25:13Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-08.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson - Digest
- 48c474134371e983e28a9f03c3f30cd50a2be80b67b400e8082a5de93555a506
- Machine
- JSON