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Milepost
1121

TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Thursday, 17 September 2026

Minneapolis, Minnesota Revisions MILEPOST 1121

Minneapolis's forecast for Wednesday has moved 10°F colder

69°F in the 20260915T12:00Z run, 60°F in the 20260917T06:00Z — the 2nd-largest revision of the 7 cities on the roster that moved at all. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 7°F.

Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Wednesday, September 23 at 00Z in Minneapolis, that trail runs from 69.3°F in the 20260915T12:00Z cycle to 59.7°F in the 20260917T06:00Z — a move of -9.6°F across 8 runs.

The change is larger than the run's own 10th-to-90th percentile spread — the guidance did not merely narrow, it moved off its previous position.

Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.

The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
forecast revision for Wednesday at 00Z
api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd)
-9.6 °F normal 0.0 °F · 2 of 7
8 synoptic cycles
10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour
api.weather.city (nbm-qmd)
7 °F normal 9.6 °F
current run
Milepost
1121 · laid 2026-09-17T17:25:13Z
Model
nbm-qmd · cycle 20260917T06:00Z
Desk
revision v1
Method
the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
Source
https://api.weather.city/v1/history
Digest
c37ba9d9a148145e311830664eea805bf83f9fe0ad51142c8072f02fbe852f88
Machine
JSON