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Milepost
1119

TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Thursday, 17 September 2026

Minneapolis, Minnesota Revisions MILEPOST 1119

Minneapolis's forecast for Wednesday has moved 7°F colder

69°F in the 20260915T06:00Z run, 62°F in the 20260917T00:00Z — the 3rd-largest revision of the 3 cities on the roster that moved at all. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 12°F.

Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Wednesday, September 23 at 00Z in Minneapolis, that trail runs from 69.2°F in the 20260915T06:00Z cycle to 62.4°F in the 20260917T00:00Z — a move of -6.8°F across 8 runs.

The change is about half the run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread, so the earlier forecast is still inside the current range of outcomes.

Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.

The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
forecast revision for Wednesday at 00Z
api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd)
-6.8 °F normal 0.0 °F · 3 of 3
8 synoptic cycles
10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour
api.weather.city (nbm-qmd)
11.9 °F normal 6.8 °F
current run
Milepost
1119 · laid 2026-09-17T11:25:16Z
Model
nbm-qmd · cycle 20260917T00:00Z
Desk
revision v1
Method
the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
Source
https://api.weather.city/v1/history
Digest
30a1f805b10cf60ac06a3378b4a2c7d6f85fdeb6054422b85e124ea201a00273
Machine
JSON