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Milepost
1119

TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Thursday, 17 September 2026

New York, New York Revisions MILEPOST 1115

New York's forecast for Tuesday has moved 9°F colder

72°F in the 20260915T06:00Z run, 63°F in the 20260916T18:00Z — the 2nd-largest revision of the 4 cities on the roster that moved at all. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 10°F.

Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Tuesday, September 22 at 18Z in New York, that trail runs from 71.9°F in the 20260915T06:00Z cycle to 62.6°F in the 20260916T18:00Z — a move of -9.3°F across 8 runs.

The change is about half the run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread, so the earlier forecast is still inside the current range of outcomes.

Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.

The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
forecast revision for Tuesday at 18Z
api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd)
-9.3 °F normal 0.0 °F · 2 of 4
8 synoptic cycles
10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour
api.weather.city (nbm-qmd)
10.2 °F normal 9.3 °F
current run
Milepost
1115 · laid 2026-09-17T10:25:25Z
Model
nbm-qmd · cycle 20260916T18:00Z
Desk
revision v1
Method
the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
Source
https://api.weather.city/v1/history
Digest
607dc9535f6b828c1c3055147859f82b4598be82f8be1455bcfee9dcb763ae55
Machine
JSON