The Ledger The Ledger
MILEPOST 1111
The ledger, through September 17
Mean absolute temperature error runs 2.23°F at day 1 and 3.66°F at day 7, over 441,494 settled forecast-observation pairs.
Every forecast this network publishes for a station with an ASOS report is compared against that report once the valid time has passed, and the residual is written down. This is the standing table for August 18–September 17, 2026.
| Lead | NDFD | NBM | pairs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 2.28 | 2.23 | 67,341 |
| Day 2 | 2.47 | 2.42 | 65,834 |
| Day 3 | 2.72 | 2.63 | 63,334 |
| Day 4 | 2.96 | 2.85 | 60,980 |
| Day 5 | 3.25 | 3.12 | 58,585 |
| Day 6 | 3.54 | 3.42 | 56,174 |
| Day 7 | 3.82 | 3.66 | 43,716 |
| Day 8 | — | 3.96 | 25,530 |
Mean absolute error, °F, temperature. ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.23 °F | of 33,815 August 18–September 17, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.63 °F | of 31,471 August 18–September 17, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.12 °F | of 29,148 August 18–September 17, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.66 °F | of 26,735 August 18–September 17, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.28 °F | of 33,526 August 18–September 17, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.72 °F | of 31,863 August 18–September 17, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.25 °F | of 29,437 August 18–September 17, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.82 °F | of 16,981 August 18–September 17, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1111 · laid 2026-09-17T00:25:14Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-08.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson - Digest
- 037a7c915551071d2773f064247f268f8ab4336055e4beaad615898db84aee90
- Machine
- JSON