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Milepost
1110

TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Wednesday, 16 September 2026

Minneapolis, Minnesota Revisions MILEPOST 1109

Minneapolis's forecast for Monday has moved 11°F colder

73°F in the 20260914T18:00Z run, 62°F in the 20260916T12:00Z — the 2nd-largest revision of the 7 cities on the roster that moved at all. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 11°F.

Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Monday, September 21 at 21Z in Minneapolis, that trail runs from 73.0°F in the 20260914T18:00Z cycle to 62.1°F in the 20260916T12:00Z — a move of -10.9°F across 8 runs.

The change is about half the run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread, so the earlier forecast is still inside the current range of outcomes.

Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.

The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
forecast revision for Monday at 21Z
api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd)
-10.9 °F normal 0.0 °F · 2 of 7
8 synoptic cycles
10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour
api.weather.city (nbm-qmd)
11 °F normal 10.9 °F
current run
Milepost
1109 · laid 2026-09-16T22:25:13Z
Model
nbm-qmd · cycle 20260916T12:00Z
Desk
revision v1
Method
the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
Source
https://api.weather.city/v1/history
Digest
24e80ef7b420ee6a0614226548f19ebaa4f13f7c87a988ac986d8ba55c5b9f9c
Machine
JSON