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Milepost
1108

TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Wednesday, 16 September 2026

Minneapolis, Minnesota Revisions MILEPOST 1107

Minneapolis's forecast for Monday has moved 12°F colder

74°F in the 20260914T12:00Z run, 62°F in the 20260916T06:00Z — the largest revision of any city on the roster. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 12°F.

Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Monday, September 21 at 21Z in Minneapolis, that trail runs from 73.5°F in the 20260914T12:00Z cycle to 61.6°F in the 20260916T06:00Z — a move of -12.0°F across 8 runs.

The change is larger than the run's own 10th-to-90th percentile spread — the guidance did not merely narrow, it moved off its previous position.

Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.

The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
forecast revision for Monday at 21Z
api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd)
-12 °F normal 0.0 °F · 1 of 7
8 synoptic cycles
10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour
api.weather.city (nbm-qmd)
11.6 °F normal 12.0 °F
current run
Milepost
1107 · laid 2026-09-16T16:25:15Z
Model
nbm-qmd · cycle 20260916T06:00Z
Desk
revision v1
Method
the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
Source
https://api.weather.city/v1/history
Digest
aef5782ab08c0f0ab4fe4b2d68b8811e2f7218be4c157c67619d5f6a0a60475a
Machine
JSON