The Ledger The Ledger
MILEPOST 1101
The ledger, through September 16
Mean absolute temperature error runs 2.23°F at day 1 and 3.65°F at day 7, over 432,892 settled forecast-observation pairs.
Every forecast this network publishes for a station with an ASOS report is compared against that report once the valid time has passed, and the residual is written down. This is the standing table for August 17–September 16, 2026.
| Lead | NDFD | NBM | pairs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 2.28 | 2.23 | 66,811 |
| Day 2 | 2.47 | 2.42 | 64,554 |
| Day 3 | 2.73 | 2.63 | 62,055 |
| Day 4 | 2.97 | 2.85 | 59,700 |
| Day 5 | 3.25 | 3.12 | 57,305 |
| Day 6 | 3.52 | 3.41 | 54,894 |
| Day 7 | 3.81 | 3.65 | 42,677 |
| Day 8 | — | 3.95 | 24,896 |
Mean absolute error, °F, temperature. ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.23 °F | of 33,175 August 17–September 16, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.63 °F | of 30,832 August 17–September 16, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.12 °F | of 28,508 August 17–September 16, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.65 °F | of 26,095 August 17–September 16, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.28 °F | of 33,636 August 17–September 16, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.73 °F | of 31,223 August 17–September 16, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.25 °F | of 28,797 August 17–September 16, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.81 °F | of 16,582 August 17–September 16, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1101 · laid 2026-09-16T00:25:16Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-08.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson - Digest
- 3a9c5eaa49d71ca116e765b937ea4376c7782206e1d60678ca8ebe53198ee440
- Machine
- JSON