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TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Wednesday, 16 September 2026

Weather Trader Notebook MILEPOST 110

September 29, 2023 Afternoon Update

NYC inundated in heavy rain

What the month did

September 2023 was the 9th-warmest September in the 131-year national record (1895–2025), at 67.7°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 66.0°F (+1.8°F).

September 2023 was the 27th-driest September in the 131-year national record (1895–2025), at 2.1in against a 1991–2020 normal of 2.6in (-0.4in).

NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.

The forecasts for NYC rainfall were exceptional and it seems the threat was communicated from NWS to government leaders in Albany. However, as we usually see with these events, there is the typical refrain of “we weren’t warned” about how bad it would be. Indeed, kids went to school and people went to work Friday morning not expected to be floating under feet of flooding hours later. Only after the rain fell and the situation was beyond control was a “flood emergency” issued by authorities.

It’s clear that free weather apps are entirely inadequate for conveying the range of outcomes during a high-end extreme weather event. More on this next week.

For subscribers

The rest of this piece is for paid subscribers of Weather Trader. The Post keeps the archive, the index and the record; the writing itself stays behind the same subscription it was published under.

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Milepost
110 · laid 2023-09-29T22:34:24.444000Z
Source
https://weather.substack.com/p/september-29-2023-afternoon-update
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