NBG The Ledger
MILEPOST 1099
Guidance has run 2.5°F warm at NBG for a month
The mean signed residual across 5,707 pairs is +2.54°F, against -0.03°F averaged over all 77 stations with enough samples to score. A bias is not an error the reader can ignore — it is one they can correct for.
Mean absolute error says how far the forecast lands from the observation; the signed mean says which side it lands on. At NBG over August 16–September 15, 2026, it lands +2.54°F from the report, across 5,707 pairs — the largest standing lean of any of the 77 stations currently carrying enough samples.
ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| mean signed residual at NBG Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.54 °F | normal -0.0 °F · 1 of 77 August 16–September 15, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1099 · laid 2026-09-15T22:25:16Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-08.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson - Digest
- 8335c518a44c5abbe4cc3dd732e1b458edb218be347daff8d4330b071ff0db06
- Machine
- JSON