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Milepost
1108

TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Wednesday, 16 September 2026

Minneapolis, Minnesota Revisions MILEPOST 1098

Minneapolis's forecast for Friday has moved 11°F colder

70°F in the 20260913T18:00Z run, 60°F in the 20260915T12:00Z — the 2nd-largest revision of the 6 cities on the roster that moved at all. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 14°F.

Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Friday, September 18 at 18Z in Minneapolis, that trail runs from 70.4°F in the 20260913T18:00Z cycle to 59.7°F in the 20260915T12:00Z — a move of -10.7°F across 8 runs.

The change is about half the run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread, so the earlier forecast is still inside the current range of outcomes.

Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.

The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
forecast revision for Friday at 18Z
api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd)
-10.7 °F normal 0.0 °F · 2 of 6
8 synoptic cycles
10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour
api.weather.city (nbm-qmd)
14.4 °F normal 10.7 °F
current run
Milepost
1098 · laid 2026-09-15T22:25:16Z
Model
nbm-qmd · cycle 20260915T12:00Z
Desk
revision v1
Method
the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
Source
https://api.weather.city/v1/history
Digest
5e985a1c2f11ca528fc533304bc4ae59a4e9b1230e641ecb54bbb498fba371b4
Machine
JSON