Phoenix, Arizona Revisions
MILEPOST 1097
Phoenix's forecast for Thursday has moved 13°F colder
98°F in the 20260913T18:00Z run, 85°F in the 20260915T12:00Z — the largest revision of any city on the roster. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 16°F.
Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Thursday, September 17 at 00Z in Phoenix, that trail runs from 97.8°F in the 20260913T18:00Z cycle to 84.8°F in the 20260915T12:00Z — a move of -13.1°F across 8 runs.
The change is about half the run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread, so the earlier forecast is still inside the current range of outcomes.
Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| forecast revision for Thursday at 00Z api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd) |
-13.1 °F | normal 0.0 °F · 1 of 6 8 synoptic cycles |
| 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour api.weather.city (nbm-qmd) |
16.2 °F | normal 13.1 °F current run |
- Milepost
- 1097 · laid 2026-09-15T22:25:16Z
- Model
- nbm-qmd · cycle 20260915T12:00Z
- Desk
- revision v1
- Method
- the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
- Source
- https://api.weather.city/v1/history
- Digest
- 8dd914b7d778b5656a37684fb6d1f80cdb09ae7a611e449d5bb53d3814ea259b
- Machine
- JSON