Edition 2026-09-16 The Ledger Archive API RSS Weather Trader
Milepost
1108

TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Wednesday, 16 September 2026

Chicago, Illinois Revisions MILEPOST 1096

Chicago's forecast for Saturday has moved 7°F warmer

71°F in the 20260913T12:00Z run, 78°F in the 20260915T06:00Z — the 3rd-largest revision of the 5 cities on the roster that moved at all. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 20°F.

Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Saturday, September 19 at 21Z in Chicago, that trail runs from 70.7°F in the 20260913T12:00Z cycle to 77.9°F in the 20260915T06:00Z — a move of +7.3°F across 8 runs.

The change sits well inside the run's own spread, which is the guidance converging rather than reversing.

Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.

The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
forecast revision for Saturday at 21Z
api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd)
7.3 °F normal 0.0 °F · 3 of 5
8 synoptic cycles
10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour
api.weather.city (nbm-qmd)
19.6 °F normal 7.3 °F
current run
Milepost
1096 · laid 2026-09-15T17:25:47Z
Model
nbm-qmd · cycle 20260915T06:00Z
Desk
revision v1
Method
the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
Source
https://api.weather.city/v1/history
Digest
cfcbddc7be6c36ecaee362563e323a419b68e6d39d0deb9c025ebe7303bb68db
Machine
JSON