Edition 2026-09-16 The Ledger Archive API RSS Weather Trader
Milepost
1108

TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Wednesday, 16 September 2026

Chicago, Illinois Revisions MILEPOST 1092

Chicago's forecast for Saturday has moved 8°F warmer

71°F in the 20260913T06:00Z run, 79°F in the 20260915T00:00Z — the 3rd-largest revision of the 4 cities on the roster that moved at all. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 16°F.

Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Saturday, September 19 at 21Z in Chicago, that trail runs from 71.2°F in the 20260913T06:00Z cycle to 79.4°F in the 20260915T00:00Z — a move of +8.2°F across 8 runs.

The change is about half the run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread, so the earlier forecast is still inside the current range of outcomes.

Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.

The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
forecast revision for Saturday at 21Z
api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd)
8.2 °F normal 0.0 °F · 3 of 4
8 synoptic cycles
10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour
api.weather.city (nbm-qmd)
15.7 °F normal 8.2 °F
current run
Milepost
1092 · laid 2026-09-15T10:25:13Z
Model
nbm-qmd · cycle 20260915T00:00Z
Desk
revision v1
Method
the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
Source
https://api.weather.city/v1/history
Digest
7e26b29c6dbb82faca030229ed8162a5bee51393907bdfe67c54bbded7f7d769
Machine
JSON