Edition 2026-09-16 The Ledger Archive API RSS Weather Trader
Milepost
1108

TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Wednesday, 16 September 2026

Phoenix, Arizona Revisions MILEPOST 1091

Phoenix's forecast for Thursday has moved 9°F colder

100°F in the 20260913T06:00Z run, 91°F in the 20260915T00:00Z — the 2nd-largest revision of the 4 cities on the roster that moved at all. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 16°F.

Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Thursday, September 17 at 00Z in Phoenix, that trail runs from 99.6°F in the 20260913T06:00Z cycle to 90.7°F in the 20260915T00:00Z — a move of -8.9°F across 8 runs.

The change is about half the run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread, so the earlier forecast is still inside the current range of outcomes.

Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.

The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
forecast revision for Thursday at 00Z
api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd)
-8.9 °F normal 0.0 °F · 2 of 4
8 synoptic cycles
10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour
api.weather.city (nbm-qmd)
16.2 °F normal 8.9 °F
current run
Milepost
1091 · laid 2026-09-15T10:25:13Z
Model
nbm-qmd · cycle 20260915T00:00Z
Desk
revision v1
Method
the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
Source
https://api.weather.city/v1/history
Digest
004ebc0dcdf1048a283d33e970f6dac88757b091e0ae554fed6cff9ee876ddb1
Machine
JSON