Edition 2026-09-16 The Ledger Archive API RSS Weather Trader
Milepost
1108

TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Wednesday, 16 September 2026

Chicago, Illinois Revisions MILEPOST 1086

Chicago's forecast for Saturday has moved 12°F warmer

70°F in the 20260912T12:00Z run, 82°F in the 20260914T12:00Z — the 2nd-largest revision of the 9 cities on the roster that moved at all. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 19°F.

Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Saturday, September 19 at 21Z in Chicago, that trail runs from 70.0°F in the 20260912T12:00Z cycle to 82.0°F in the 20260914T12:00Z — a move of +12.0°F across 8 runs.

The change is about half the run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread, so the earlier forecast is still inside the current range of outcomes.

Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.

The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
forecast revision for Saturday at 21Z
api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd)
12 °F normal 0.0 °F · 2 of 9
8 synoptic cycles
10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour
api.weather.city (nbm-qmd)
18.7 °F normal 12.0 °F
current run
Milepost
1086 · laid 2026-09-14T22:25:12Z
Model
nbm-qmd · cycle 20260914T12:00Z
Desk
revision v1
Method
the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
Source
https://api.weather.city/v1/history
Digest
a35d9f97ca520088ddcee40b2ada80b883236d991c79d9dc2df9ad066c3883ee
Machine
JSON