The Ledger The Ledger
MILEPOST 1077
The ledger, through September 14
Mean absolute temperature error runs 2.23°F at day 1 and 3.53°F at day 7, over 397,924 settled forecast-observation pairs.
Every forecast this network publishes for a station with an ASOS report is compared against that report once the valid time has passed, and the residual is written down. This is the standing table for August 15–September 14, 2026.
| Lead | NDFD | NBM | pairs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 2.29 | 2.23 | 62,019 |
| Day 2 | 2.48 | 2.43 | 59,762 |
| Day 3 | 2.72 | 2.63 | 57,338 |
| Day 4 | 2.91 | 2.82 | 54,908 |
| Day 5 | 3.15 | 3.04 | 52,513 |
| Day 6 | 3.41 | 3.29 | 50,102 |
| Day 7 | 3.71 | 3.53 | 38,782 |
| Day 8 | — | 3.84 | 22,500 |
Mean absolute error, °F, temperature. ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.23 °F | of 30,779 August 15–September 14, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.63 °F | of 28,511 August 15–September 14, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.04 °F | of 26,112 August 15–September 14, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.53 °F | of 23,699 August 15–September 14, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.29 °F | of 31,240 August 15–September 14, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.72 °F | of 28,827 August 15–September 14, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.15 °F | of 26,401 August 15–September 14, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.71 °F | of 15,083 August 15–September 14, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1077 · laid 2026-09-14T00:25:37Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-08.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson - Digest
- b4e8a9efa54e3383c4d37c2dcd38d7a854c85ec372cba60c08e16c90d341ad00
- Machine
- JSON