MHL The Ledger
MILEPOST 1072
Guidance has run 2.5°F warm at MHL for a month
The mean signed residual across 5,097 pairs is +2.51°F, against +0.00°F averaged over all 77 stations with enough samples to score. A bias is not an error the reader can ignore — it is one they can correct for.
Mean absolute error says how far the forecast lands from the observation; the signed mean says which side it lands on. At MHL over August 14–September 13, 2026, it lands +2.51°F from the report, across 5,097 pairs — the largest standing lean of any of the 77 stations currently carrying enough samples.
ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| mean signed residual at MHL Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.51 °F | normal 0.0 °F · 1 of 77 August 14–September 13, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1072 · laid 2026-09-13T10:25:11Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-08.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson - Digest
- e40e51a3d6244c7e4bc14c063d26251ce03a7d173736523806af7f26e22c05cb
- Machine
- JSON