The Ledger The Ledger
MILEPOST 1069
The ledger, through September 13
Mean absolute temperature error runs 2.23°F at day 1 and 3.51°F at day 7, over 380,314 settled forecast-observation pairs.
Every forecast this network publishes for a station with an ASOS report is compared against that report once the valid time has passed, and the residual is written down. This is the standing table for August 14–September 13, 2026.
| Lead | NDFD | NBM | pairs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 2.28 | 2.23 | 59,611 |
| Day 2 | 2.47 | 2.43 | 57,354 |
| Day 3 | 2.70 | 2.62 | 54,930 |
| Day 4 | 2.89 | 2.80 | 52,500 |
| Day 5 | 3.13 | 3.02 | 50,105 |
| Day 6 | 3.39 | 3.27 | 47,694 |
| Day 7 | 3.69 | 3.51 | 36,824 |
| Day 8 | — | 3.81 | 21,296 |
Mean absolute error, °F, temperature. ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.23 °F | of 29,575 August 14–September 13, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.62 °F | of 27,307 August 14–September 13, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.02 °F | of 24,908 August 14–September 13, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.51 °F | of 22,495 August 14–September 13, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.28 °F | of 30,036 August 14–September 13, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.7 °F | of 27,623 August 14–September 13, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.13 °F | of 25,197 August 14–September 13, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.69 °F | of 14,329 August 14–September 13, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1069 · laid 2026-09-13T00:25:10Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-08.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson - Digest
- fba3b8a04a436fd829f3600139a27f909860d099f971ea9247e6fc0ef416d7e0
- Machine
- JSON