Edition 2026-09-16 The Ledger Archive API RSS Weather Trader
Milepost
1108

TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Wednesday, 16 September 2026

YKM The Ledger MILEPOST 1068

Guidance has run 2.5°F warm at YKM for a month

The mean signed residual across 4,555 pairs is +2.53°F, against +0.01°F averaged over all 77 stations with enough samples to score. A bias is not an error the reader can ignore — it is one they can correct for.

Mean absolute error says how far the forecast lands from the observation; the signed mean says which side it lands on. At YKM over August 13–September 12, 2026, it lands +2.53°F from the report, across 4,555 pairs — the largest standing lean of any of the 77 stations currently carrying enough samples.

ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.

The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
mean signed residual at YKM
Forecast Network verification ledger
2.53 °F normal 0.0 °F · 1 of 77
August 13–September 12, 2026
Milepost
1068 · laid 2026-09-12T22:25:12Z
Desk
ledger v1
Method
ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
Source
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-08.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson
Digest
87a121c0922d13c55ed0fd9d072fcf6e86369deb278083a60fd27e87798f598d
Machine
JSON