Edition 2026-09-16 The Ledger Archive API RSS Weather Trader
Milepost
1108

TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Wednesday, 16 September 2026

Chicago, Illinois Revisions MILEPOST 1066

Chicago's forecast for Tuesday has moved 10°F warmer

74°F in the 20260910T18:00Z run, 84°F in the 20260912T12:00Z — the 2nd-largest revision of the 7 cities on the roster that moved at all. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 12°F.

Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Tuesday, September 15 at 21Z in Chicago, that trail runs from 74.2°F in the 20260910T18:00Z cycle to 84.5°F in the 20260912T12:00Z — a move of +10.3°F across 8 runs.

The change is about half the run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread, so the earlier forecast is still inside the current range of outcomes.

Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.

The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
forecast revision for Tuesday at 21Z
api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd)
10.3 °F normal 0.0 °F · 2 of 7
8 synoptic cycles
10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour
api.weather.city (nbm-qmd)
12.2 °F normal 10.3 °F
current run
Milepost
1066 · laid 2026-09-12T22:25:12Z
Model
nbm-qmd · cycle 20260912T12:00Z
Desk
revision v1
Method
the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
Source
https://api.weather.city/v1/history
Digest
f15bbcacfb0c7241c0f5a8844fe847aa0aaeed2d60ba6ef6ef7cd7d31e2a9914
Machine
JSON