The Ledger The Ledger
MILEPOST 1058
The ledger, through September 12
Mean absolute temperature error runs 2.22°F at day 1 and 3.48°F at day 7, over 362,764 settled forecast-observation pairs.
Every forecast this network publishes for a station with an ASOS report is compared against that report once the valid time has passed, and the residual is written down. This is the standing table for August 13–September 12, 2026.
| Lead | NDFD | NBM | pairs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 2.27 | 2.22 | 57,211 |
| Day 2 | 2.46 | 2.41 | 54,954 |
| Day 3 | 2.69 | 2.61 | 52,530 |
| Day 4 | 2.88 | 2.79 | 50,100 |
| Day 5 | 3.12 | 3.01 | 47,705 |
| Day 6 | 3.38 | 3.25 | 45,294 |
| Day 7 | 3.66 | 3.48 | 34,874 |
| Day 8 | — | 3.75 | 20,096 |
Mean absolute error, °F, temperature. ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.22 °F | of 28,375 August 13–September 12, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.61 °F | of 26,107 August 13–September 12, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.01 °F | of 23,708 August 13–September 12, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.48 °F | of 21,295 August 13–September 12, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.27 °F | of 28,836 August 13–September 12, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.69 °F | of 26,423 August 13–September 12, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.12 °F | of 23,997 August 13–September 12, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.66 °F | of 13,579 August 13–September 12, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1058 · laid 2026-09-12T00:25:11Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-08.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson - Digest
- 6ff60e816be622d2549a4efc9e3c00285eda13a58ee6d2bd68efb096ad8d77ec
- Machine
- JSON