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Milepost
1108

TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Wednesday, 16 September 2026

Kansas City, Missouri Revisions MILEPOST 1054

Kansas City's forecast for Tuesday has moved 13°F warmer

72°F in the 20260909T12:00Z run, 85°F in the 20260911T06:00Z — the 3rd-largest revision of the 9 cities on the roster that moved at all. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 10°F.

Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Tuesday, September 15 at 18Z in Kansas City, that trail runs from 71.5°F in the 20260909T12:00Z cycle to 84.8°F in the 20260911T06:00Z — a move of +13.3°F across 8 runs.

The change is larger than the run's own 10th-to-90th percentile spread — the guidance did not merely narrow, it moved off its previous position.

Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.

The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
forecast revision for Tuesday at 18Z
api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd)
13.3 °F normal 0.0 °F · 3 of 9
8 synoptic cycles
10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour
api.weather.city (nbm-qmd)
9.7 °F normal 13.3 °F
current run
Milepost
1054 · laid 2026-09-11T16:25:13Z
Model
nbm-qmd · cycle 20260911T06:00Z
Desk
revision v1
Method
the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
Source
https://api.weather.city/v1/history
Digest
f4f8a6c5e93b2a580638ea287b7b375824df99af5be97d5f05ba481870f00411
Machine
JSON