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TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Wednesday, 16 September 2026

Weather Trader Tropics MILEPOST 105

September 22, 2023 Hurricane Season

Ophelia intensifying up until landfall in North Carolina

What the month did

September 2023 was the 9th-warmest September in the 131-year national record (1895–2025), at 67.7°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 66.0°F (+1.8°F).

September 2023 was the 27th-driest September in the 131-year national record (1895–2025), at 2.1in against a 1991–2020 normal of 2.6in (-0.4in).

NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.

NHC upgraded Tropical Storm Ophelia to fully tropical status at 2 PM ET and aircraft recon has found near hurricane force winds in the circulation. The center of circulation is now tucked under the curved band of convection, which could be half of an eyewall if it encircles. Landfall is not until Saturday mid-morning, so plenty of time for Ophelia to intensify a little more to a hurricane. 5 pm ET intensity was 70 mph with 986 mb central pressure, which is already deeper than models forecasted.

Large rain shield of 2-4” extending from NC into New England.

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Milepost
105 · laid 2023-09-22T21:03:46.987000Z
Source
https://weather.substack.com/p/september-22-2023-hurricane-season
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