Edition 2026-09-16 The Ledger Archive API RSS Weather Trader
Milepost
1108

TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Wednesday, 16 September 2026

Chicago, Illinois Revisions MILEPOST 1049

Chicago's forecast for Monday has moved 14°F colder

83°F in the 20260909T00:00Z run, 69°F in the 20260910T18:00Z — the largest revision of any city on the roster. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 20°F.

Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Monday, September 14 at 18Z in Chicago, that trail runs from 83.4°F in the 20260909T00:00Z cycle to 69.4°F in the 20260910T18:00Z — a move of -14.1°F across 8 runs.

The change is about half the run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread, so the earlier forecast is still inside the current range of outcomes.

Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.

The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
forecast revision for Monday at 18Z
api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd)
-14.1 °F normal 0.0 °F · 1 of 8
8 synoptic cycles
10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour
api.weather.city (nbm-qmd)
19.7 °F normal 14.1 °F
current run
Milepost
1049 · laid 2026-09-11T04:25:13Z
Model
nbm-qmd · cycle 20260910T18:00Z
Desk
revision v1
Method
the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
Source
https://api.weather.city/v1/history
Digest
8c1f8da65f978ae3c2cb5d5e145c2ecff021f0ff184827091ba596a3645b4663
Machine
JSON