The Ledger The Ledger
MILEPOST 1048
The ledger, through September 11
Mean absolute temperature error runs 2.22°F at day 1 and 3.40°F at day 7, over 345,156 settled forecast-observation pairs.
Every forecast this network publishes for a station with an ASOS report is compared against that report once the valid time has passed, and the residual is written down. This is the standing table for August 12–September 11, 2026.
| Lead | NDFD | NBM | pairs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 2.27 | 2.22 | 54,803 |
| Day 2 | 2.45 | 2.41 | 52,546 |
| Day 3 | 2.69 | 2.60 | 50,122 |
| Day 4 | 2.87 | 2.78 | 47,692 |
| Day 5 | 3.10 | 2.98 | 45,297 |
| Day 6 | 3.33 | 3.21 | 42,886 |
| Day 7 | 3.58 | 3.40 | 32,918 |
| Day 8 | — | 3.67 | 18,892 |
Mean absolute error, °F, temperature. ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.22 °F | of 27,171 August 12–September 11, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.6 °F | of 24,903 August 12–September 11, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.98 °F | of 22,504 August 12–September 11, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.4 °F | of 20,091 August 12–September 11, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.27 °F | of 27,632 August 12–September 11, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.69 °F | of 25,219 August 12–September 11, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.1 °F | of 22,793 August 12–September 11, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.58 °F | of 12,827 August 12–September 11, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1048 · laid 2026-09-11T00:25:12Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-08.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson - Digest
- 2e479b5784b3479fb47366d0ec954cbed4b74c3b14b3ec300d83b0a55d736586
- Machine
- JSON