Edition 2026-09-16 The Ledger Archive API RSS Weather Trader
Milepost
1108

TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Wednesday, 16 September 2026

YKM The Ledger MILEPOST 1047

Guidance has run 2.6°F warm at YKM for a month

The mean signed residual across 4,087 pairs is +2.64°F, against +0.03°F averaged over all 77 stations with enough samples to score. A bias is not an error the reader can ignore — it is one they can correct for.

Mean absolute error says how far the forecast lands from the observation; the signed mean says which side it lands on. At YKM over August 11–September 10, 2026, it lands +2.64°F from the report, across 4,087 pairs — the largest standing lean of any of the 77 stations currently carrying enough samples.

ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.

The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
mean signed residual at YKM
Forecast Network verification ledger
2.64 °F normal 0.0 °F · 1 of 77
August 11–September 10, 2026
Milepost
1047 · laid 2026-09-10T22:25:17Z
Desk
ledger v1
Method
ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
Source
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-08.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson
Digest
0b536f2fe2cbd4524c0b20c50dc4746933db40bb5b91d326802c741cf3b06bc7
Machine
JSON