The Ledger The Ledger
MILEPOST 1040
The ledger, through September 10
Mean absolute temperature error runs 2.21°F at day 1 and 3.33°F at day 7, over 327,609 settled forecast-observation pairs.
Every forecast this network publishes for a station with an ASOS report is compared against that report once the valid time has passed, and the residual is written down. This is the standing table for August 11–September 10, 2026.
| Lead | NDFD | NBM | pairs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 2.27 | 2.21 | 52,403 |
| Day 2 | 2.45 | 2.40 | 50,146 |
| Day 3 | 2.68 | 2.59 | 47,722 |
| Day 4 | 2.85 | 2.76 | 45,292 |
| Day 5 | 3.07 | 2.96 | 42,897 |
| Day 6 | 3.27 | 3.16 | 40,486 |
| Day 7 | 3.52 | 3.33 | 30,971 |
| Day 8 | — | 3.62 | 17,692 |
Mean absolute error, °F, temperature. ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.21 °F | of 25,971 August 11–September 10, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.59 °F | of 23,703 August 11–September 10, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.96 °F | of 21,304 August 11–September 10, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.33 °F | of 18,891 August 11–September 10, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.27 °F | of 26,432 August 11–September 10, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.68 °F | of 24,019 August 11–September 10, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.07 °F | of 21,593 August 11–September 10, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.52 °F | of 12,080 August 11–September 10, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1040 · laid 2026-09-10T12:29:55Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-08.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson - Digest
- 33dbea1eff6ff68fff786d0347c157efdd83a063b00e4efea08292cc84667bbe
- Machine
- JSON