YKM The Ledger
MILEPOST 1037
Guidance has run 2.7°F warm at YKM for a month
The mean signed residual across 3,853 pairs is +2.65°F, against +0.04°F averaged over all 77 stations with enough samples to score. A bias is not an error the reader can ignore — it is one they can correct for.
Mean absolute error says how far the forecast lands from the observation; the signed mean says which side it lands on. At YKM over August 11–September 10, 2026, it lands +2.65°F from the report, across 3,853 pairs — the largest standing lean of any of the 77 stations currently carrying enough samples.
ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| mean signed residual at YKM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.65 °F | normal 0.0 °F · 1 of 77 August 11–September 10, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1037 · laid 2026-09-10T12:29:55Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-08.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson - Digest
- 3e3aa855fadc0f2efb48ec14eb0adaf4b11f73bc4821a2724787dbf20f554a02
- Machine
- JSON