August 12, 2026 Wednesday Tropical Update
Cristobal formed in the subtropical Atlantic with 2 more MDR tropical waves being watched. Hawaii under threat from Lala this weekend.
August 2026 was the warmest August in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 75.6°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 73.1°F (+2.5°F).
August 2026 was the 22nd-driest August in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 2.3in against a 1991–2020 normal of 2.7in (-0.4in).
NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.
Potential Tropical Cyclone (01C) —> 90% chance of development (it hasn’t yet formed!) but expected to become Tropical Storm Lala with potential of Hurricane threat to the Hawaiian Islands this weekend.
Visible satellite shows a large area of disturbed weather with a naked swirl/circulation breaking free of convection.
There is a large scale cyclonic circulation but the low-level circulations have not been able to align with the convection, thus keeping formation delayed! However, we should expected TD 01C —> TS Lala by Thursday.
Forecast Track from NHC for 01C (Tropical Storm Lala)
Maximum intensity is 60-knots — top end tropical storm for Lala with landfall into the Big Island of Hawaii Saturday morning local time.
HAFS-A mesoscale model takes Lala to the 980s (hurricane intensity) right through the Big Island (it would get deflected around Mauna Loa (13,000 feet) and over Maui.
Large Scale View of Precipitable Water in Central Pacific with 01C
Pull this deep tropical moisture northward and then into Lala across the Hawaiian Islands —> extreme rainfall totals / flooding risk
Tracks are right through the Hawaiian Islands. Only question is above/below the Big Island and the mountainous peak. I’d go with the northward excursion!
We are watching 3 areas across the Atlantic basin this evening with a tropical wave (Invest 92L) along 35°W at 80% chance of tropical cyclone formation according to NHC, and newly named Tropical Storm Cristobal (03L) in the middle of the north subtropical Atlantic, and then another strong tropical wave (40%) making its west through the MDR.
At this time, plenty of convection with both waves in the Main Development Region. But the environment ahead of 92L (and to the north) is very dry and convection is having trouble. The wave to the east (eventually 94L) is more robust.
From yesterday evening, Invest 93L up in the nearly the mid-latitudes was named Cristobal (40 knot winds)
Water Vapor ahead of 92L on the way to Caribbean —> very dry but the following wave is embedded within a much more moist environment.
Invest 92L might be the sacrificial lamb and head due westward into the Caribbean graveyard. Yesterday evening, AIFS-ENS 18z was very excited by the following wave (the 40% orange one) with it blowing up into a major hurricane (high chance in this model) but that has since been dialed back.
The AIFS-ENS 12z tracks show a 20-30% chance of survival of Invest 94L (it will be the next wave in line) with potential hurricane tracks through the western Atlantic.
Previous AIFS-ENS 00z and 06z also dialed back the excitement with 94L.
ECMWF Ensemble 12z full-physics tracks next 15-days
Looking at the full-physics gives a different outlook —> and we see some stray tracks in the Gulf of Mexico (3/50 members) and a few survivors out of the MDR —> overall 15% chance of a hurricane out of the EPS 12z.
Next 7-days Blend of Models Precipitation
Bone dry under the “heat dome” in Texas/Oklahoma into Arkansas with the “ring of fire” moisture flow around the ridge.
Low Temperatures on Thursday Morning —> 80s in the central Plains
High Temperatures on Thursday
Widespread 100s across Texas into Kansas with 143 million population at least 90°
Heat Dome —> High Temperatures Next 9-days to Friday, August 21
Huge area of 90s and 100s remains firmly in place from Texas/OK into the Southeast. However, the mid-Atlantic and Northeast + Great Lakes and Midwest only in the 70s and 80s.
ECMWF HRES | Precipitable Water | Atlantic Tropics Next 10-days
4 tropical waves at lower latitudes in the Main Development Region being watched for development over the next 10-days
Plenty of opportunity for one of these to “catch fire” but none through 10-days is particularly well organized or passing the eye test as a strong TS or hurricane.
Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 12z —> Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days
Tropical Storm or Hurricane Lala will likely rolls through the Hawaiian Islands this weekend.
Multiple robust Atlantic tropical waves lighting up the Atlantic MDR but don’t seem to develop. A couple cross into the Eastern Pacific and may have better chance in 10-14 days.
Mid-Level 500 mb Height Anomaly next 10-days
Heat dome flattens out along the southern U.S. from Texas first into the Southeast and then back to the Southwest over the next 10-days
Actual Heights at 500 mb approaching 595 dm by Sunday
Week 1 Temperature Anomaly (°F)
Easy to see the center of the ridge/heat dome with 12°F above normal highs centered on Missouri.
Week 2 Temperature Anomaly (°F)
And, that area doesn’t move much at all. Impressive. Quite hot HRES 15-day streak in Oklahoma City into last week of August!
Atlantic Tropics | Busy but no imminent threats
Tropical Waves — 8 areas being watched
2 of the waves in the parade in the Central/Eastern Pacific are now marked with 60% to 90% chance of development in next 7-days including PTC 01C to be Lala. And, 5 in the Atlantic with Invest 92L at 80% and following wave at 40%.
Sea Surface Temperatures plenty warm now > 28°C (red)
The warmth in the MDR is quickly expanding to carve into the cool <26°C water from the cold Canary Current, so I think any tropical waves that stay below 20°N latitude will have sufficient warm water to develop.
NASA Dust (GEOS-5) — Saharan Air Layers continue to cruise across the Atlantic doing damage to tropical waves and stabilizing the tropical environment with warmth at lower levels. The SAL weakens significantly into next week.
Visible satellite earlier at 2 PM ET (1z) showed the milky haze stretching from Africa into the Caribbean.
Tropical Equatorial Africa — still more waves to come!
Need to mention Cristobal — because tomorrow it will likely be gone!
40-knot winds at 37°N latitude and out by the Azores.
Flagship AIFS Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days
Multiple tropical waves but none seem to catch fire in this model update (12z) compared to yesterday. And, then the basin seems to go back into slumber mode.
Eastern and Central Pacific Hurricane Basin
Western Pacific Typhoon Basin
Still a mess with the monsoon trough … multiple swirls with names but remaining relatively weak.
Integrated Vapor Transport from ECMWF AIFS 18z
More significant typhoons in the medium range Days 7-10.
Global Tropical Cyclones for more ACE information, as well as my original climatlas.com/tropical site now with the beautiful Interstate Highway theme and full of interesting content!
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My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)
From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)
9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)
NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast
- Milepost
- 1006 · laid 2026-08-12T22:24:40.939000Z
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- https://weather.substack.com/p/august-12-2026-wednesday-tropical
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- 41bec1b980ecc32c40a437d59e66e3d3ac3c518410cf49b2b167af43e9fe2a5d
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