Guidance has run 4.2°F warm at T41 for a month
The mean signed residual across 991 pairs is +4.18°F, against +0.11°F averaged over all 85 stations with enough samples to score. A bias is not an error the reader can ignore — it is one they can correct for.
The LedgerSunday, November 15, 2026T41
JSON
Milepost 1695
Mean absolute error says how far the forecast lands from the observation; the signed mean says which side it lands on. At T41 over October 16–November 15, 2026, it lands +4.18°F from the report, across 991 pairs — the largest standing lean of any of the 85 stations currently carrying enough samples.
ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| mean signed residual at T41 Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.18 °F | normal 0.1 °F · 1 of 85 October 16–November 15, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1695 · laid 2026-11-15T06:25:29Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Stores
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-11.ndjson - Tagged
- I-500 Daily Weather · by rule, at build
- Digest
- 78ff758376377ccc46c6a73578a4192209e0c03266c1ac525848d6e0d1237a53