The ledger, through November 14
Mean absolute temperature error runs 2.38°F at day 1 and 4.61°F at day 7, over 751,862 settled forecast-observation pairs.
The LedgerSaturday, November 14, 2026The Ledger
JSON
Milepost 1685
Every forecast this network publishes for a station with an ASOS report is compared against that report once the valid time has passed, and the residual is written down. This is the standing table for October 15–November 14, 2026.
| Lead | NDFD | NBM | pairs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 2.45 | 2.38 | 69,766 |
| Day 2 | 2.68 | 2.56 | 69,780 |
| Day 3 | 2.98 | 2.80 | 69,236 |
| Day 4 | 3.26 | 3.10 | 69,167 |
| Day 5 | 3.75 | 3.53 | 69,163 |
| Day 6 | 4.31 | 4.08 | 69,152 |
| Day 7 | 4.70 | 4.61 | 56,081 |
| Day 8 | — | 5.00 | 35,122 |
Mean absolute error, °F, temperature. ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, hrrr Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.33 °F | of 39,465 October 15–November 14, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.38 °F | of 35,184 October 15–November 14, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.8 °F | of 35,188 October 15–November 14, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.53 °F | of 35,186 October 15–November 14, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.61 °F | of 35,178 October 15–November 14, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.36 °F | of 17,429 October 15–November 14, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.7 °F | of 17,432 October 15–November 14, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.31 °F | of 17,409 October 15–November 14, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.34 °F | of 17,381 October 15–November 14, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.45 °F | of 34,582 October 15–November 14, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.98 °F | of 34,048 October 15–November 14, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.75 °F | of 33,977 October 15–November 14, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.7 °F | of 20,903 October 15–November 14, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, rrfs Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.49 °F | of 30,658 October 15–November 14, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1685 · laid 2026-11-14T00:25:31Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Stores
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-11.ndjson - Tagged
- I-500 Daily Weather · by rule, at build
- Digest
- 9a04ea4915acb2a45fd084a3fa5cf6268c4b0ca51f44ba5056972761346df5a7