New York's forecast for Tuesday has moved 8°F warmer
49°F in the 20261111T06:00Z run, 57°F in the 20261113T00:00Z — the 2nd-largest revision of the 7 cities on the roster that moved at all. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 3°F.
RevisionsFriday, November 13, 2026New York, New York
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Milepost 1681
Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Tuesday, November 17 at 21Z in New York, that trail runs from 48.6°F in the 20261111T06:00Z cycle to 56.9°F in the 20261113T00:00Z — a move of +8.2°F across 8 runs.
The change is larger than the run's own 10th-to-90th percentile spread — the guidance did not merely narrow, it moved off its previous position.
Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| forecast revision for Tuesday at 21Z api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd) |
8.2 °F | normal 0.0 °F · 2 of 7 8 synoptic cycles |
| 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour api.weather.city (nbm-qmd) |
3.2 °F | normal 8.2 °F current run |
- Milepost
- 1681 · laid 2026-11-13T10:25:31Z
- Model
- nbm-qmd · cycle 20261113T00:00Z
- Desk
- revision v1
- Method
- the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
- Stores
- https://api.weather.city/v1/history
- Tagged
- I-500 Daily Weather · New York, New York (40.713, -74.006) · by rule, at build
- Digest
- 87a46ebc2aab0d05f04250b18373ca4fe07d60f4ce10fd690fd0220ddfbfbffd